Ubukungu bw’u Rwanda bukomeje kugaragaza umuvuduko ukomeye, nubwo igihugu kigihanganye n’izamuka ry’ibiciro ndetse n’igitutu ku mibereho y’abaturage; imibare iheruka gutangazwa n’Ikigo cy’Igihugu cy’Ibarurishamibare, NISR, igaragaza ko umusaruro mbumbe w’igihugu wazamutseho 10% mu gihembwe cya mbere cya 2026 ugereranyije n’igihembwe nk’icyo mu 2025, mu gihe izamuka rusange ry’ibiciro ryageze kuri 14.5% muri Nyakanga 2026, rivuye kuri 13.6% muri Kamena, bikaba ari ibintu buri Munyarwanda akwiye kumenya kugira ngo asobanukirwe neza uko ubukungu bw’igihugu buhagaze.
Mu gihembwe cya mbere cya 2026, umusaruro mbumbe w’u Rwanda wageze kuri miliyari 6,346 z’amafaranga y’u Rwanda, uvuye kuri miliyari 5,276 mu gihembwe cya mbere cya 2025. Ibi bivuze ko ubukungu bwazamutseho 10% mu mwaka umwe, bikaba bigaragaza ko ibikorwa by’ubukungu bikomeje kwaguka.
Mu gihembwe cya mbere cya 2026, urwego rwa serivisi rwagize uruhare rwa 52% mu musaruro mbumbe w’igihugu. Ubuhinzi bwagize 19%, inganda zigira 24%, naho imisoro itaziguye ku bicuruzwa na serivisi igira 5%. Ibi bigaragaza ko ubukungu bw’u Rwanda butagishingiye ku buhinzi gusa, kuko serivisi zikomeje kugira uruhare runini mu iterambere ry’igihugu.
Urwego rw’inganda rwazamutseho 13% mu gihembwe cya mbere cya 2026. Muri uru rwego, ubucukuzi bw’amabuye y’agaciro n’ibindi bicukurwa bwazamutseho 20%, ubwubatsi buzamuka 11%, naho inganda zikora ibicuruzwa zazamutseho 15%. Iri zamuka rishobora gutanga amahirwe mashya ku bashoramari ndetse no ku bafite ubumenyi bukenewe mu nganda.
Serivisi zijyanye n’amakuru n’itumanaho zazamutseho 22% mu gihembwe cya mbere cya 2026. Ibi bigaragaza uruhare rugenda rwiyongera rw’ikoranabuhanga mu bukungu bw’u Rwanda. Ku rubyiruko, ubumenyi mu gukora porogaramu, kwamamaza hifashishijwe ikoranabuhanga, ubucuruzi bwo kuri murandasi n’izindi serivisi zikoresha internet bushobora gukomeza kugira agaciro ku isoko ry’umurimo.
Ubucuruzi bwo kugurisha byinshi no kugurisha ku giti cy’umuntu bwazamutseho 11% mu gihembwe cya mbere cya 2026, mu gihe serivisi z’ubwikorezi na zo zazamutseho 11%. Ibi bigaragaza ko gutwara abantu n’ibintu ndetse no gucuruza bikomeje kugira uruhare mu kuzamura ubukungu bw’igihugu.
Ubuhinzi bwazamutseho 8% mu gihembwe cya mbere cya 2026. NISR yatangaje ko umusaruro w’ibihingwa by’ibiribwa wazamutseho 3%, mu gihe ibihingwa byoherezwa mu mahanga byazamutseho 39%. Ibi bishimangira ko ubuhinzi bugifite uruhare rukomeye mu bukungu, cyane cyane mu kwinjiza amadovize binyuze mu bicuruzwa byoherezwa hanze.
Nubwo umusaruro mbumbe w’igihugu uri kwiyongera, abaturage bakomeje guhura n’izamuka ry’ibiciro. NISR yatangaje ko izamuka rusange ry’ibiciro muri Nyakanga 2026 ryari kuri 14.5%, rivuye kuri 13.6% muri Kamena. Ibi bivuze ko kwiyongera k’umusaruro mbumbe w’igihugu bidahita bisobanura ko buri muturage ahita yumva ko ubukungu bwe bwifashe neza. Iyo ibiciro bizamutse cyane, amafaranga umuntu yinjiza ashobora kutongera kugira agaciro nk’uko byahoze.
Muri Nyakanga 2026, ibiciro by’ingufu byazamutseho 44.5% ugereranyije na Nyakanga 2025. Ibiciro by’ubwikorezi na byo byazamutseho 24.2%, mu gihe ibijyanye n’imiturire, amazi, umuriro, gaz n’ibindi bikoresho by’ingufu byazamutseho 21%. Ibi bishobora kugira ingaruka ku biciro by’ibicuruzwa byinshi, kuko ingufu n’ubwikorezi bigira uruhare mu kubikora no kubigeza ku isoko.
NISR yatangaje ko umusaruro w’inganda ukorerwa mu buryo bwemewe wazamutseho 6.2% muri Kamena 2026, ugereranyije na Kamena 2025. Ikigereranyo cy’ubwiyongere bw’umusaruro w’inganda mu mwaka na cyo cyari kuri 6.3%. Ibi ni ingenzi kuko iterambere ry’inganda rishobora gufasha igihugu kongera umusaruro ukorerwa imbere mu gihugu, kugabanya ibicuruzwa bitumizwa hanze no guteza imbere imirimo.
Ikigega Mpuzamahanga cy’Imari, IMF, cyemeje gahunda yo gufasha u Rwanda binyuze muri Extended Credit Facility. Iyi gahunda ifite agaciro ka SDR miliyoni 185.031, kangana na hafi miliyoni 250 z’amadolari ya Amerika. IMF yavuze ko ubukungu bw’u Rwanda bwazamutseho 9.4% mu 2025. Icyakora, iteganya ko ubwiyongere bushobora kugabanyuka mu 2026 bitewe n’izamuka ry’ibiciro, ibiciro by’ingufu n’ifumbire, ndetse n’igitutu ku mafaranga y’amahanga.
Muri make, imibare yerekana ishusho ebyiri z’ingenzi. Ku ruhande rumwe, umusaruro mbumbe w’igihugu urakura, inganda zirazamuka, serivisi ziraguka kandi ikoranabuhanga rikomeje kugira uruhare runini mu bukungu. Ku rundi ruhande, izamuka ry’ibiciro riracyari ikibazo gikomeye, cyane cyane ku ngufu, ubwikorezi, ibiribwa n’imiturire. Ibi bituma ikibazo kidakwiye kuba ukumenya gusa niba ubukungu buri gukura, ahubwo hakwiye no kurebwa niba iryo terambere rihinduka imibereho myiza ku Banyarwanda benshi.
Ubukungu bw’u Rwanda bukomeje kugaragaza imbaraga, ariko imibare mishya yerekana ko hakiri urugendo rwo guhuza ubwiyongere bw’umusaruro mbumbe w’igihugu n’igabanuka ry’igitutu cy’ibiciro ku baturage. Mu gihe umusaruro mbumbe w’igihugu wazamutseho 10% mu gihembwe cya mbere cya 2026, izamuka rusange ry’ibiciro ryageze kuri 14.5% muri Nyakanga. Ibi bitanga isomo rikomeye: iterambere ry’ubukungu ntiripimirwa gusa ku mubare w’umusaruro mbumbe w’igihugu, ahubwo rigomba no kugaragara mu buzima bwa buri munsi bw’umuturage.